Trade in Truths

Four months have gone by since my return to N.Y. And what four months!  Please humor a non-economist's attempt to synthesize the darkest market malaise since the Great Depression. The post-mortem, monthly approach struck me as less overwhelming. Minute-by-minute market analysis is  migraine inducing for those of us outside the financial industry. Too many negatives.  Only November struck an upbeat note with the election of Barak Obama.

September: Financial Industry on Fire

Headlines were already grim before landing but the credit crisis accelerated in September. At the start of the month, the U.S. government seized Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, the nation's two largest mortgage finance companies, to backstop capital shortfalls. Mid-month stocks plummeted. What began as a real estate crisis two years ago gained nightmare proportions. Financial industry giants -- Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, AIG-- fell to their knees. Investment banks Goldman Sacks and Morgan Stanley reinvented themselves as bank holding companies subject to greater regulation. WAMU, my own bank, went belly up.

October: Dramatic Dips and Domino Effect

October opened with a $700-million goverment bailout to the financial industry. The measure, initially rejected by the House of Representatives, became more palatable after the Dow Jones took a 778-point nose dive on Sept. 27. Dramatic dips continued and spread to Europe. Gruesome graphs of the gutted global economy dominated magazine covers and newspapers. The U.S. Federal Reserve and leading central banks jumped to cut interest rates and releave the pressure but the damage was done. The Dow Jones read like a heartattack, trending sharp falls and record lows. Consumer confidence cracked for the first time in 17 years. The economy shrunk 0.3 percent.

November: Obama, Yes We Can

The United States of America picked Barack Obama as president on Nov. 4. He is the first African-American elected to the nation's highest office. The race drew the largest voter turn out in forty years. The final poll point count showed 53 percent of Americans supported Obama while 46 percent backed Senator John McCain. Obama sold a motivational dream that prevailed against a worldwide Bush malaise. McCain, a self-appointed Maverick, tried to distance himself from the Bush Administration. However, he lost a serious shot at the presidency after picking Alaskan Governor Palin as his running mate. Palin was the object of endless ridicule in the mainstream media and in comic daily shows. The only one who treated Palin with a hint of grace awas Senator Joe Biden, Obama's running mate, in the vice presidential debates.

December: Make it Stop!

Recession or depression? The question remains even after the elections. Oil prices collapsed amid Washington and Wall Street debates. The auto industry begged for a bailout. Corporations are cutting back and cutting corners. We are holding our breath for January. For-profit America predicts trim bonuses and the sexiest first home-owner market of the decade. But even at low prices, stock savy consumers face the fundamental issue of low liquidity. Corporate layoffs have left thousands on the streets. The previously affluent are saddled with mortgages, credit card debt and unaffordable tuition. The poor penny pinch without safety nets, while NGOs grow nervous as investors snap their checkbooks shut.